Полная версия:
Доверие в долг. Криптовалюты как деньги и кредит: механизм, циклы, правила
33
CoinDesk Research, «Market Spotlight: Inside Crypto’s $19 Billion Liquidation Event», https://www.coindesk.com/research/market-spotlight-the-19-billion-liquidation-that-shook-crypto; CNBC, 22.10.2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/22/the-biggest-crypto-wipeout-was-led-not-by-bitcoin-but-much-smaller-tokens-heres-what-happened.html.
34
Minsky, 1992, pp. 7–8.
35
Minsky H. P. The Financial Instability Hypothesis. 1992, pp. 7–8: «…over periods of prolonged prosperity, the economy transits from financial relations that make for a stable system to financial relations that make for an unstable system.»
36
Cambridge Core, аннотация главы 1 «The Bubble Triangle», с. 1–15, https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781108367677%23CN-bp-1/type/book_part; DOI книги 10.1017/9781108367677.
37
Cambridge Core, аннотация главы 12, https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781108367677%23CN-bp-12/type/book_part; страницы — Crossref, DOI 10.1017/9781108367677.012.
38
Quinn W., Turner J. D. Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles. Cambridge University Press, 2020; аннотация главы 12 «Predicting Bubbles»: «The chapter starts by arguing that the bubble triangle can explain why the cryptocurrency bubble occurred in 2017.»
39
Nakamoto, 2008, раздел 1 «Introduction», https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf.
40
R. J. Shiller, «Narrative Economics», American Economic Review 107(4), April 2017, pp. 967–1004, DOI 10.1257/aer.107.4.967, https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.107.4.967.
41
Shiller R. J. Narrative Economics. American Economic Review, 2017, 107(4): «The human brain has always been highly tuned toward narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions, even such basic actions as spending and investing.»
42
расчёт: даты халвингов — (Bitcoin Wiki, mempool.space, The Block); даты пиков — (Bitstamp).
43
FRED, M2SL, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=M2SL&cosd=2024-01-01&coed=2026-09-01; FEDFUNDS; цены — https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=86400&limit=4&start=1759622400.
44
Satoshi Nakamoto, «Bitcoin open source implementation of P2P currency», P2P Foundation, 11.02.2009, 22:27 UTC; архив Satoshi Nakamoto Institute, https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.org/posts/p2pfoundation/1/.
45
Nakamoto S. Bitcoin open source implementation of P2P currency. P2P Foundation, 11.02.2009: «The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.»
46
Michael McLeay, Amar Radia, Ryland Thomas, «Money in the modern economy: an introduction», Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1, 14.03.2014, pp. 4–13. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-in-the-modern-economy-an-introduction; PDF: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-in-the-modern-economy-an-introduction.pdf.
47
McLeay M., Radia A., Thomas R. Money in the modern economy: an introduction. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1, p. 4: «Money today is a type of IOU, but one that is special because everyone in the economy trusts that it will be accepted by other people in exchange for goods and services.»
48
Michael McLeay, Amar Radia, Ryland Thomas, «Money in the modern economy: an introduction», Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1, 14.03.2014, pp. 4–13. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-in-the-modern-economy-an-introduction; PDF: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-in-the-modern-economy-an-introduction.pdf.
49
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money in the modern economy: an introduction», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 7, раздел «Why money is special». URL —.
50
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money in the modern economy: an introduction», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 7, раздел «Why money is special». URL —.
51
Там же, p. 7: «Money is a social institution that provides a solution to the problem of a lack of trust.»
52
Michael McLeay, Amar Radia, Ryland Thomas, «Money in the modern economy: an introduction», Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1, 14.03.2014, pp. 4–13. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-in-the-modern-economy-an-introduction; PDF: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-in-the-modern-economy-an-introduction.pdf.
53
William Henry Furness 3rd, «The Island of Stone Money: Uap of the Carolines», J. B. Lippincott, Philadelphia & London, 1910, гл. VII «Money and Currency». Текст: Project Gutenberg #72830, https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/72830.
54
William Henry Furness 3rd, «The Island of Stone Money: Uap of the Carolines», J. B. Lippincott, Philadelphia & London, 1910, гл. VII «Money and Currency». Текст: Project Gutenberg #72830, https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/72830.
55
William Henry Furness 3rd, «The Island of Stone Money: Uap of the Carolines», J. B. Lippincott, Philadelphia & London, 1910, гл. VII «Money and Currency». Текст: Project Gutenberg #72830, https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/72830.
56
Furness W. H. The Island of Stone Money: Uap of the Carolines. Philadelphia; London: J. B. Lippincott, 1910, гл. «Money and Currency». Историю утонувшего камня Фёрнесс пересказывает со слов местного знакомого, так что это рассказ, и протоколом его считать не стоит.
57
William Henry Furness 3rd, «The Island of Stone Money: Uap of the Carolines», J. B. Lippincott, Philadelphia & London, 1910, гл. VII «Money and Currency». Текст: Project Gutenberg #72830, https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/72830.
58
William Henry Furness 3rd, «The Island of Stone Money: Uap of the Carolines», J. B. Lippincott, Philadelphia & London, 1910, гл. VII «Money and Currency». Текст: Project Gutenberg #72830, https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/72830.
59
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money in the modern economy: an introduction», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 5 и сноска 1 («As of December 2013»); повторено в «Money creation in the modern economy», стр. 15 («97% of the amount currently in circulation»).
60
McLeay, Radia, Thomas. Money in the modern economy: an introduction. Таких же точных цифр по другим странам в моих источниках нет, поэтому британские 97% я на весь мир не переношу.
61
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 16.
62
McLeay M., Radia A., Thomas R. Money creation in the modern economy. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1, p. 16: «Bank deposits are simply a record of how much the bank itself owes its customers.»
63
Narayana R. Kocherlakota, «Money Is Memory», Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 218, 01.10.1996; опубликовано в Journal of Economic Theory 81(2), August 1998, pp. 232–251. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/staff-reports/money-is-memory.
64
Narayana R. Kocherlakota, «Money Is Memory», Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 218, 01.10.1996; опубликовано в Journal of Economic Theory 81(2), August 1998, pp. 232–251. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/staff-reports/money-is-memory.
65
Kocherlakota N. Money is Memory. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Research Department Staff Report 218, 1996; журнальная версия — Journal of Economic Theory, 1998. В аннотации: «Depending on the environment, the converse may or may not be true.» Банк Англии (McLeay, Radia, Thomas. Money in the modern economy: an introduction, p. 7, сноска 4): «Kocherlakota (1998) points out that a lack of a record of all transactions is another necessary condition».
66
Narayana R. Kocherlakota, «Money Is Memory», Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Staff Report 218, 01.10.1996; опубликовано в Journal of Economic Theory 81(2), August 1998, pp. 232–251. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/staff-reports/money-is-memory.
67
Satoshi Nakamoto, «Bitcoin P2P e-cash paper», The Cryptography Mailing List, 31.10.2008, 14:10 EDT, https://www.metzdowd.com/pipermail/cryptography/2008-October/014810.html.
68
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money in the modern economy: an introduction», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 6, сноска 1.
69
A. Mitchell Innes, «What is Money?», The Banking Law Journal, May 1913, pp. 377–408. Текст: http://www.newmoneyhub.com/www/money/mitchell-innes/what-is-money.html.
70
Mitchell Innes A. What is Money? The Banking Law Journal, May 1913: «Credit and credit alone is money.» Экономисты основного течения долго его не замечали; сейчас на него опираются посткейнсианцы и сторонники современной денежной теории (A. Mitchell Innes, «What is Money?», The Banking Law Journal, May 1913, pp. 377–408. Текст: http://www.newmoneyhub.com/www/money/mitchell-innes/what-is-money.html).
71
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 16.
72
Michael McLeay, Amar Radia, Ryland Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1, 14.03.2014, pp. 14–27. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy; PDF: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf.
73
McLeay, Radia, Thomas. Money creation in the modern economy, p. 14: «Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money.»
74
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 16.
75
Michael McLeay, Amar Radia, Ryland Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1, 14.03.2014, pp. 14–27. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy; PDF: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf.
76
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 14 (Overview).
77
Там же, p. 14: «Monetary policy acts as the ultimate limit on money creation.»
78
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 14 (Overview).
79
Michael McLeay, Amar Radia, Ryland Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1, 14.03.2014, pp. 14–27. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy; PDF: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf.
80
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 16.
81
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 14 (Overview).
82
Nakamoto, P2P Foundation, 11.02.2009, https://satoshi.nakamotoinstitute.org/posts/p2pfoundation/1/.
83
Nakamoto, P2P Foundation, 11.02.2009: «Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve.»
84
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money creation in the modern economy», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 14 (Overview).
85
BIS, Annual Economic Report 2018, ch. V, https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2018e5.htm.
86
BIS. Annual Economic Report 2018, ch. V «Cryptocurrencies: looking beyond the hype»: «Sustained episodes of stable money are historically much more of an exception than the norm. In fact, trust has failed so frequently that history is a graveyard of currencies.»
87
McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money in the modern economy: an introduction», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 5 (со ссылкой на Sargent, 1982).
88
Ещё три числа для масштаба. То, что в 1918 году стоило одну марку, в 1923 году стоило бы больше 300 млрд марок (McLeay, Radia, Thomas, «Money in the modern economy: an introduction», BoE QB 2014 Q1, стр. 5 (со ссылкой на Sargent, 1982)). В конце октября 1923 года больше 99% банкнот Рейхсбанка в обращении были выпущены за предыдущие 30 дней (Sargent, «The Ends of Four Big Inflations», 1982, стр. 75 и 82 (со ссылкой на Young, 1925)). Курс марки, по таблицам Сарджента, упал с 1,69 американского цента в январе 1920 года до 0,000 000 000 043 цента в ноябре 1923-го (Thomas J. Sargent, «The Ends of Four Big Inflations», in: R. E. Hall (ed.), «Inflation: Causes and Effects», University of Chicago Press / NBER, 1982, pp. 41–98, табл. G1 (стр. 74–75; данные Young, 1925). PDF: https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c11452/c11452.pdf). Sargent T. J. The Ends of Four Big Inflations. In: Hall R. E. (ed.) Inflation: Causes and Effects. University of Chicago Press, 1982.
89
Sargent, «The Ends of Four Big Inflations», 1982, стр. 75 и 82 (со ссылкой на Young, 1925).
90
Sargent, «The Ends of Four Big Inflations», 1982, стр. 82–83.
91
Sargent, «The Ends of Four Big Inflations», 1982, стр. 82–83.
92
Sargent, «The Ends of Four Big Inflations», 1982, стр. 82–83.
93
Sargent, 1982, pp. 82–84: «…a new currency unit called the Rentenmark was declared equivalent to 1 trillion (1012) paper marks»; «Simultaneously and abruptly three things happened: additional government borrowing from the central bank stopped, the government budget swung into balance, and inflation stopped». К равновесию бюджет свели повышением налогов и сокращением госслужащих; Сарджент упоминает и облегчение репараций по плану Дауэса. Предел выпуска рентных марок — 3,2 млрд, кредита правительству — 1,2 млрд (Sargent, «The Ends of Four Big Inflations», 1982, стр. 82–83).
94
The Block, «Bitcoin ushers in fourth halving…», 20.04.2024, https://www.theblock.co/post/289875/bitcoin-ushers-in-fourth-halving-as-miners-block-subsidy-reward-drops-to-3-125-btc; CNBC, 19.04.2024, https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/19/bitcoin-network-completes-fourth-ever-halving-of-rewards-to-miners.html.
95
S. H. Hanke, N. Krus, «World Hyperinflations», Cato Working Paper No. 8, 2012 (опубл. в: R. Parker, R. Whaples (eds.), «The Handbook of Major Events in Economic History», Routledge, 2013) — цифры по Wikipedia, «Hyperinflation», https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation.
96
Hanke, Krus, 2012, таблица (копия на Scribd — ).
97
Hanke, Krus, 2012, таблица (копия на Scribd — ).
98
S. H. Hanke, N. Krus, «World Hyperinflations», Cato Working Paper No. 8, 15.08.2012, таблица «The Hyperinflation Table»; оригинал: https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/workingpaper-8.pdf; прочитана копия таблицы: «The Hanke Krus Hyperinflation Table», Scribd, https://www.scribd.com/document/104816500/The-Hanke-Krus-Hyperinflation-Table.
99
Hanke S. H., Krus N. World Hyperinflations, 2012 (таблица). Венгрия, июль 1946 года: цены удваивались примерно каждые 15 часов (Hanke, Krus, 2012, таблица (копия на Scribd — )). Пик Германии — октябрь 1923 года, 29 500% в месяц, цены удваивались за 3,7 дня; выше в таблице стоят Венгрия, Зимбабве, Югославия и Республика Сербская. Оценка по Зимбабве (удвоение за 24,7 часа в середине ноября 2008 года) модельная, потому что официальная статистика к тому времени перестала публиковаться (S. H. Hanke, N. Krus, «World Hyperinflations», Cato Working Paper No. 8, 15.08.2012, таблица «The Hyperinflation Table»; оригинал: https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/workingpaper-8.pdf; прочитана копия таблицы: «The Hanke Krus Hyperinflation Table», Scribd, https://www.scribd.com/document/104816500/The-Hanke-Krus-Hyperinflation-Table).
100
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, «Press Statement: Demonetization of the Zimbabwe Dollar», Governor J. P. Mangudya, 11.06.2015, https://www.rbz.co.zw/documents/publications/press/demonetisation-press-statement-9-june-2015.pdf.
101
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe. Press Statement: Demonetization of the Zimbabwe Dollar, 11.06.2015: «Demonetisation is not compensation for the loss of value of the Z$ due to hyper-inflation. It is an exchange process.» Наличные банкноты серии 2008 года меняли по 250 трлн зимбабвийских долларов за доллар США; крупные остатки на счетах пересчитывали по обменному курсу ООН, 35 квадриллионов за доллар (Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, «Press Statement: Demonetization of the Zimbabwe Dollar», Governor J. P. Mangudya, 11.06.2015, https://www.rbz.co.zw/documents/publications/press/demonetisation-press-statement-9-june-2015.pdf). На мультивалютную систему, то есть на чужие деньги, Зимбабве перешла в 2009 году (Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, «Press Statement: Demonetization of the Zimbabwe Dollar», Governor J. P. Mangudya, 11.06.2015, https://www.rbz.co.zw/documents/publications/press/demonetisation-press-statement-9-june-2015.pdf).
102
Sargent, «The Ends of Four Big Inflations», 1982, стр. 82–83.
103
Hanke, Krus, 2012, таблица (копия на Scribd — ).
104
BIS, Annual Economic Report 2018, ch. V, https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2018e5.htm.
105
BIS, Annual Economic Report 2018, ch. V, https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2018e5.htm.
106
William Henry Furness 3rd, «The Island of Stone Money: Uap of the Carolines», J. B. Lippincott, Philadelphia & London, 1910, гл. VII «Money and Currency». Текст: Project Gutenberg #72830, https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/72830.
107
Caroline Shenton, «Burning the House down: The Fire of 1834», The History of Parliament (блог History of Parliament Trust), 16.10.2013, https://historyofparliament.com/2013/10/16/the-fire-of-1834/; Science Museum Group Collection, «Medieval Exchequer Tally Sticks», https://collection.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/objects/co60506/medieval-exchequer-tally-sticks.
108
A. Mitchell Innes, «What is Money?», 1913 (URL — ).
109
Caroline Shenton, «Burning the House down: The Fire of 1834», The History of Parliament (блог History of Parliament Trust), 16.10.2013, https://historyofparliament.com/2013/10/16/the-fire-of-1834/; Science Museum Group Collection, «Medieval Exchequer Tally Sticks», https://collection.sciencemuseumgroup.org.uk/objects/co60506/medieval-exchequer-tally-sticks.
110
Satoshi Nakamoto, «Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System», 2008, https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf (Abstract).
111
Nakamoto, 2008, раздел 2, https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf.
112
Nakamoto S. Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, 2008, section 2: «The only way to confirm the absence of a transaction is to be aware of all transactions.»
113
BIS, Annual Economic Report 2018, ch. V, https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2018e5.htm.
114
BIS, Annual Economic Report 2018, ch. V: «For digital money, solving the double-spending problem requires, at a minimum, that someone keep a record of all transactions.»
115
Nakamoto, 2008, раздел 2 «Transactions», https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf.
116
Nakamoto, 2008, раздел 2 «Transactions», https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf.
117
Nakamoto, 2008, section 2: «The problem with this solution is that the fate of the entire money system depends on the company running the mint, with every transaction having to go through them, just like a bank.»
118
BIS, Annual Economic Report 2018, ch. V, https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2018e5.htm.
119
David Chaum, «Blind Signatures for Untraceable Payments», in: Advances in Cryptology: Proceedings of Crypto 82, Plenum Press, 1983, pp. 199–203. PDF: https://chaum.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chaum-blind-signatures.pdf.
120
David Chaum, «Blind Signatures for Untraceable Payments», in: Advances in Cryptology: Proceedings of Crypto 82, Plenum Press, 1983, pp. 199–203. PDF: https://chaum.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chaum-blind-signatures.pdf.
121
David Chaum, «Blind Signatures for Untraceable Payments», in: Advances in Cryptology: Proceedings of Crypto 82, Plenum Press, 1983, pp. 199–203. PDF: https://chaum.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Chaum-blind-signatures.pdf.
122
Chaum D. Blind Signatures for Untraceable Payments. Advances in Cryptology: Proceedings of Crypto 82, 1983, p. 199: «…knowledge by a third party of the payee, amount, and time of payment for every transaction made by an individual can reveal a great deal about the individual’s whereabouts, associations and lifestyle.»
123
Chaum, «Blind Signatures for Untraceable Payments», 1983, стр. 202, шаги протокола (10)–(12).
124
Там же, p. 202, шаг протокола (11): «Bank adds note to comprehensive list of cleared notes and stops if note already on list.»
125
Nakamoto, 2008, раздел 2 «Transactions», https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf.
126
chaum.com, «eCash» (хронология), https://chaum.com/ecash/; год основания — Wikipedia, «DigiCash», https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DigiCash.
127
American Banker, «Electronic Commerce: Bankrupt Digicash to Seek Financing, New Allies», 10.11.1998, https://www.americanbanker.com/news/electronic-commerce-bankrupt-digicash-to-seek-financing-new-allies.
128
Заявление подано по главе 11 американского закона о банкротстве, то есть о защите от кредиторов (American Banker, «Electronic Commerce: Bankrupt Digicash to Seek Financing, New Allies», 10.11.1998, https://www.americanbanker.com/news/electronic-commerce-bankrupt-digicash-to-seek-financing-new-allies). Банк из Сент-Луиса — Mark Twain Bank; среди европейских банков, пробовавших или лицензировавших eCash, — Deutsche Bank и Credit Suisse (chaum.com, «eCash» (хронология), https://chaum.com/ecash/; год основания — Wikipedia, «DigiCash», https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DigiCash).
129
American Banker, «Electronic Commerce: Bankrupt Digicash to Seek Financing, New Allies», 10.11.1998, https://www.americanbanker.com/news/electronic-commerce-bankrupt-digicash-to-seek-financing-new-allies.
